Three Weeks In, the Iran-US War Has No Exit Strategy and No End Date

by admin477351

Three weeks into the most intense US military engagement in the Middle East in years, the conflict between the United States and Iran showed no signs of finding an exit ramp. President Trump rejected the idea of a near-term deal with Iran, saying in public remarks that the terms were not yet good enough. He refused to give a timeline for ending the war, telling reporters it would last “as long as it’s necessary.” Meanwhile, US planes continued to bomb Iran, Iran continued to strike US allies, and global oil markets teetered on the edge of a major crisis.

The focal point of the conflict on Saturday was Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export facility located about 15 miles off the country’s coast. US warplanes had struck the island on Friday in a massive assault, and further waves of attacks continued on Saturday. Trump claimed the island had been effectively destroyed and suggested more strikes were coming. He simultaneously warned that Iran’s remaining oil infrastructure could be targeted if Tehran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas normally flows.

Iran’s response was to escalate rather than retreat. Ballistic missiles struck the UAE on Saturday, hitting near Fujairah’s major energy port and forcing oil-loading operations to halt. Iranian military officials warned civilians near ports and US facilities to evacuate. The country’s military threatened strikes on any Gulf energy or economic facility with American ties, while its foreign minister called on Arab neighbours to expel US forces. Iran’s strategy, according to analysts, was to survive, keep fighting, and prolong the war until it could negotiate on its own terms.

Trump called on multiple allied nations — China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK — to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz to help force it open. Analysts described this as the first public admission that the US might not be able to reopen the strait unilaterally. The 2,500 additional US marines and USS Tripoli already en route to the region added military muscle, though officials noted they could serve multiple functions beyond a potential amphibious landing. Israel remained deeply involved, conducting dozens of airstrikes on Iranian territory and fighting simultaneously in Lebanon.

The cost of three weeks of war was already enormous and growing. Between 1,400 and 1,800 Iranians had been reported killed under relentless bombing, with residents describing unrelenting strikes day and night. Thirteen Israelis were dead, and around 20 people had died across the Gulf. Lebanon had seen more than 800 killed and 850,000 displaced. Six US troops died in an aircraft crash in Iraq. The US embassy in Baghdad was struck by missiles, triggering an emergency evacuation order. Oil prices were surging toward $120 per barrel and threatening to go higher. The world was watching a conflict with no clear end, and growing anxiety that no one in charge was ready to stop it.

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